Pregnancy prevalence; a direct method of estimating fertility

Abstract

Tho objectivo nf Hii" study is to tost tho applicability nnd efficiency of a new method of estimating traditional fertility in a situation whero retrospective) surveys have limitations, and vitnl registration pystnma do nnfr oxiat. Tho method wna developed, by the author and named "Pregnancy Vrovnlcnco Mnthod". The basic id on is to find out tho numbor of pregnant women at eomo point in time through a survey nnd to do a second survoy exactly six months later., on the same Bamplo io wo how mnny live births* occurred from thoso pregnancies and, in addition, to find out the number of pregnnnt womon in tho second survey. From tin's one can estimate total births, ©x pectod in occur in the 12 months beginning at the time of tho first survey. The first empirical study u?ing this method WPS done in a rural area of Bangladesh, where there was no vitnl registration syutom of any kind. Responses regarding pregtmnries were found to be accurnto in that population. The pregnancy prevalence) method ogtinmtnd a fertility levnl, ns good an to that obi-ainod from the extensive vital registration data. Moreover, thin method has some ndditional advantages : (1) it eRtimates tho seasonal fluctuations, (2) it ostimfltos the yenr-to-year fluctuations, and (3) it can be used to evaluate tho population program of a country, evnn immediately nffror Iho iinploraentation of such programs. Thin mnthod was found suitable in rural Banglndcph to ogtimato fertility and its dynamics.